Report: South Florida's economic recovery may be near

Report: South Florida's economic recovery may be near

By CLIFFORD M. MARKS for Miami Herald - June 18, 2009

A new study suggests that Florida should get extra federal stimulus money because the state has been so hard-hit by the recession.

South Florida may finally be close to turning the corner on a recession that has hit the region far harder than most major U.S. metropolitan areas, according to data in a report released Wednesday by an influential Washington think tank.

The report, published by the Brookings Institution, ranks South Florida No. 85 among the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas in economic performance, as of March 2009, based on employment, unemployment rates, wages, gross metropolitan product, housing prices and foreclosure rates.

The gross metropolitan product is the value of all the goods and services produced in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.

SLOWER PACE

The pace of decline in employment and gross metro product slowed compared with other regions over the first quarter of 2009, however, which may presage recovery for the region. ''For Miami and a couple of these other Florida metros, there are signs that you may be getting near the bottom of employment and the top of unemployment,'' said report coauthor Alan Berube, who cited the Miami area's relative economic diversity as a possible impetus for recovery.

University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith called those findings consistent with national and local economic indicators that ''the plunge has slowed,'' but cautioned that the region will face further economic hardship even if it's nearing the bottom of the recession.

TARGETED STIMULUS

Meanwhile, the study's authors suggested that future federal stimulus be more targeted toward places like the Florida metros that have been most hurt by the recession.

''Many areas will need targeted assistance,'' said report coauthor Howard Wial in an accompanying statement, ``and since states have no funds available, the federal government will have to step up to fill the void.''

`A TOUGHER PATH'

But Snaith was not optimistic about the prospects for focused funding from Washington, citing federal mortgage relief programs that already exclude many homeowners in hard-hit Florida areas because large real estate price declines have put their mortgages too far underwater to qualify for aid.

''It's something that I'm not hopeful for or building into my forecasts,'' Snaith said. ``I just think we'll have a tougher path to recovery.''

`THE UGLY SCAR'

Miami wasn't alone in Florida in reeling from the recession. Eight of the 25 worst-performing metro areas were in Florida, a list that included Orlando, Tampa, Bradenton, Lakeland, Jacksonville, Cape Coral and Palm Bay. And unlike Miami, Florida metros with less diversified economies may see a longer road to recovery, Snaith said.

''The labor market is going to be the ugly scar that remains and reminds us of the trauma we've gone through,'' he said.

''I think we're looking at 2011 or 2012 before we can talk about a return to the type of growth that we've become accustomed to in Florida,'' Snaith said.



<== Back